euros group a betting tips

Euro 2020 is finally here and there are some truly exciting match-ups coming your way, and that’s just in the groups. In fact, this entire tournament is an incredibly competitive one, but it’s even more so when we take a deep dive into each group. Group A is one of the hardest groups to call as there’s not one single standout team. In this group there are actually several teams that are currently playing in top form, making it one of the most open groups in this tournament. That being said, Italy is still the favourite here and likely to take the top spot in the group. But, with Turkey and Switzerland rather evenly matched and Wales game to cause an upset that second spot is very much up for grabs.

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Match odds
2021-06-11 1 X 2
Turkey Italy 23/4 5/2 8/13
2021-06-12 1 X 2
Wales Switzerland 14/5 21/10 6/5
Denmark Finland 12/25 3/1 7/1
Belgium Russia 3/5 3/1 24/5
2021-06-13 1 X 2
England Croatia 3/4 13/5 17/4
Austria North Macedonia 11/20 3/1 23/4
Netherlands Ukraine 11/20 29/10 11/2
2021-06-14 1 X 2
Scotland Czech Republic 11/5 2/1 31/20
Poland Slovakia 4/5 12/5 17/4
Spain Sweden 4/9 10/3 7/1
2021-06-15 1 X 2
Hungary Portugal 21/4 14/5 3/5
France Germany 33/20 11/5 37/20
2021-06-16 1 X 2
Finland Russia 4/1 14/5 7/10
Turkey Wales 5/4 21/10 5/2
Italy Switzerland 7/10 11/4 4/1
2021-06-17 1 X 2
Ukraine North Macedonia 13/20 13/5 5/1
Denmark Belgium 27/10 13/5 Evens
Netherlands Austria 3/5 3/1 24/5
2021-06-18 1 X 2
Sweden Slovakia 4/5 12/5 19/5
Croatia Czech Republic 23/20 9/4 13/5
England Scotland 33/100 17/4 17/2
2021-06-19 1 X 2
Hungary France 8/1 7/2 4/11
Portugal Germany 9/4 23/10 13/10
Spain Poland 13/25 13/4 11/2
2021-06-20 1 X 2
Switzerland Turkey 7/5 9/4 21/10
Italy Wales 11/25 3/1 15/2
2021-06-21 1 X 2
North Macedonia Netherlands 15/1 9/2 1/4
Ukraine Austria 37/20 43/20 33/20
Finland Belgium 23/2 17/4 7/25
Russia Denmark 15/4 9/4 9/10
2021-06-22 1 X 2
Croatia Scotland 17/20 49/20 18/5
Czech Republic England 13/2 13/4 4/9
2021-06-23 1 X 2
Slovakia Spain 14/1 5/1 11/50
Sweden Poland 17/10 21/10 37/20
Germany Hungary 1/4 23/5 12/1
Portugal France 9/4 43/20 27/20

Italy Betting Tips and Odds

Italy is the fans and bookies favourite in this group to come out on top. But they’re not just scoring highly in the groups but as the overall winner. Currently, Italy is in the seventh position, sitting at a comfortable 11/1 with Casumo, to take home the trophy. This is for good reason. Italy entered the tournament with an impressive 8 wins and 2 draws in their last ten games — not a single loss there. In fact, their form is as perfect as it can get in football, which makes them truly the one to watch. The team is home to some of their best performers too with Ciro Immobile being one of the notable faces. He’s ranked in the top ten at 22/1 to become top goalscorer and claim the Golden Boot.

Odds for Italy

Turkey Betting Tips and Odds

Turkey is good at football, on and off. Until recently, this team has been almost written off, leaving them as one of the longer outsiders for this tournament. But, things change. In their last five games, Turkey has seen a run of impressive form winning three away games against Norway, Russia and the Netherlands, the latter one of the top 10 in the Euro 2020 to take the crown. With such good form, things have turned around for this Turkish side who are now at a much better 50/1 to win the title. With 11/2 odds to win the group, things are looking up for this team. And there is some star quality here, particularly with Enes Unal, Bunyamin Balci and Hakan Calhanoglu all ready and raring to go.

Odds for Turkey

Switzerland Betting Tips and Odds

Switzerland is on a relatively equal footing with Turkey right now. In fact, these two teams are where the results of this group might lie. The winner in this clash may well be the one to seize second place in the pool or even that coveted top spot. Switzerland has a number of outstanding players in the team including Granit Xhaka, Ricardo Rodriguez and Haris Seferovic. This team means business and is looking to get out of the group and take that title. On very close odds to Turkey, this Swiss side is at 9/2 to take the group but is set at slightly longer odds of 70/1 for actually winning the tournament. Keep an eye on the Turkey-Switzerland clash as this is where the action will be.

Odds for Switzerland

Wales Betting Tips and Odds

Without a doubt, Wales are the biggest underdogs in this group. They do have a stellar team in play though, coached by the impressive Ryan Giggs. Within the team is a plethora of other top players including Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey, Daniel James and Joe Rodon. However, while each of these players shows individual excellence, they need to work well as a team moving forward. Wales is also one of the longest shots in the tournament sitting at 100/1 to take the title, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility. That being said, they are coming in with a decent run of wins, winning 4 of their last 5 outings. The loss was a respectable one against Belgium, so they could pull off a surprise in Group A.

Odds for Wales

Tipster’s Angle: Can the Italians hold out for a win?

While there is a clear divide between the top and bottom teams in this group, what makes Group A fascinating is the consistency. Each one of these teams is coming into the group on a streak of excellent wins. That makes this group one of the more unpredictable ones out there, which will make this all the more exciting. Of course, Italy is still the favourites, but the strong performances and stellar players in the other teams make it hard to rule them out. In fact, each of them has a solid chance at qualifying out of the group for the next round. Keep an eye on the Turkey vs Switzerland game as this last game could be the one that seals the fate of the teams topping the group.

Group A Fixtures and Results

All games in Group A are held in either Azerbaijan or Italy, giving Italy and, to some extent, Turkey, the home advantage this year.

Current fixtures for Group A:

Friday, June 12th:
Turkey vs Italy (Kick off at 8 pm in Rome).

Saturday, June 13th:
Wales vs Switzerland (Kick off at 3 pm in Baku).

Wednesday, June 17th:
Turkey vs Wales (Kick off at 5 pm in Baku)

Italy vs Switzerland (Kick off at 8 pm in Rome).

Sunday, June 21st:
Italy vs Wales (Kick off at 5 pm in Rome)

Switzerland vs Turkey (Kick off at 5 pm in Baku).

Stay tuned to find out the latest results for each of these matches, as well as any predictions for each of the games that are coming up!

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Euro 2020 Match Betting: Czech Republic v England preview

England and Scotland will both be looking to join fellow Home Nations side, Wales, in the last 16. But who will punch their ticket to the knockout stage? Here are our views ahead of the Czech Republic v England, and Croatia v Scotland.

Czech Republic v England Betting Tips — Gareth Southgate’s men ready to make amends after Scotland draw

England, from the outset, should have had a vice-like grip on Group D. While their 1-0 victory over Croatia in their opening group game was workmanlike and efficient, the Three Lions did what they had to. Against Scotland, England was insipid and sluggish. Although John Stones clattered a header from a Mason Mount corner against the post, they failed to break down an obdurate Scotland, who gave a good account of themselves. Tougher tests lie ahead for Gareth Southgate, who has had to field criticism about his side’s ponderous play.

Harry Kane has been below his best this tournament, but many would have expected Jack Grealish to be unleashed by now. It remains to be seen whether Southgate will take a gamble and start Grealish. England needs a creative spark, and a win against the Czech Republic will secure the top spot. Currently, England is 3/5 to beat the Czech Republic, but having not scored more than one goal in each of their past four outings, the onus will be on Southgate’s men to step things up in their final group game. While England could avoid the likes of France and Germany in the last 16 if they finish runners-up in Group D, they may only be delaying the inevitable.

Surprisingly, the Czech Republic is in charge of Group D going into Matchday 3, and they have looked impressive to date. Patrik Schick is currently Euro 2020s join top scorer, having netted three times to date, and his wonder strike against Scotland is a sure-fire contender for goal of the tournament. The Czech Republic have acquitted themselves well so far, and the 1996 finalists will fancy their chances of causing an upset against England.

At present, the goal difference separates the Czech Republic and England. You can get odds of 13/2 for the Czech Republic to come away with a victory.

Name Winner Top 2
England 21/50 1/14
Croatia 19/5 4/6
Czech Republic 21/2 2/1
Scotland 16/1 3/1

Croatia v Scotland Betting Tips — Scots suffer Billy Gilmour blow ahead of crunch game

Scotland’s performance against England merited the point they richly deserved, and they are still in the frame to reach the last 16. In particular, Billy Gilmour shone, which saw the Chelsea midfielder earn rave reviews, and it even saw comparisons drawn between him and Barcelona legend Xavi! However, Gilmour tested positive for COVID-19 over the weekend, and if Steve Clarke’s men do advance to the round of 16, Gilmour will be forced to sit out as he has to self isolate for 10 days.

Despite this setback, the point against England injected new belief into the Scotland squad, and they have turned things around after their 2-0 defeat to the Czech Republic in their opening group game. After waiting so long to reach a major tournament, Scotland won’t be thinking of departing Euro 2020 just yet, and they are 43/20 to beat Croatia.

As far as Croatia are concerned, Euro 2020 won’t so far live long in the memory. A 1-0 reverse against England followed by a 1-1 draw was hardly what we expected from the 2018 World Cup semi-finalists. Luka Modric is seen as a fulcrum of the Croatia side, but he has been largely anonymous. Croatia will need a win to get the four-point mark which is seen as the minimum to cement a last 16 berth, and they are currently valued at 59/50 to beat Scotland.

Where’s the Golden Boot heading?

The Golden Boot could go right down to the wire, but if you want to find out the latest Euro 2020 golden boot odds and betting tips, we have you covered.

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Euro 2020 Match Betting: Netherlands v North Macedonia preview

There are four cracking matches to look forward to on Matchday 3, and for some teams, there is still plenty to play for. In this preview, we will give the lowdown on North Macedonia v Netherlands, Finland v Belgium, and Russia v Denmark.

North Macedonia v Netherlands Betting tips — Frank de Boer looking to finish group campaign in style

The Netherlands will indulge in the celebratory atmosphere in the Johann Cruijff Arena when they take on North Macedonia later today. After qualifying for the last 16 with a game to spare, the Netherlands will be buoyant mood going into this dead rubber. Of course, Frank de Boer won’t allow his troops to take their foot off the pedal, and he will be demanding a professional performance to wrap up maximum points from Group C. Denzel Dumfries has impressed, and with two goals to boot so far this tournament, he will be eager to add to his tally against North Macedonia, and it could see his euros golden boot odds cut short.

Nevertheless, while North Macedonia will be packing their bags early, they will have learned a lot from their first major tournament. Igor Angelovski’s men have been rather refreshing in their approach, but they have afforded their opponents too many chances. A cursory glance at the odds shows North Macedonia are at a long 23/2 to beat the Netherlands, but it would certainly give their fans something to shout about.

Name Winner Top 2
Netherlands 13/25 1/16
Ukraine 17/4 4/5
Austria 9/2 19/20
North Macedonia 40/1 17/2

Finland v Belgium Betting tips — Finns in the race for last 16 spot

Belgium has already secured their place in the last 16, and it seems likely they will top Group B. It will be fascinating to see if Roberto Martinez rings in the changes to give some squad members more game time. Nevertheless, after a shaky performance against Denmark, the Red Devils are back in the groove. Belgium’s defensive problems were clear for all to see against Denmark, but with Kevin De Bruyne expected to start against Finland, he will likely pull the strings. Belgium is 33/100 to notch up three points against Finland.

Of course, Finland will take heart from Denmark’s display against Belgium. The permutations for Finland to qualify as runners-up will be if they draw or beat Belgium, and Russia loses to Denmark. Finland could recall Tim Sparv — who underwent knee surgery in March — against Belgium, and this would be a big boost.

Russia v Denmark Betting tips — Russia’s fate lies in their own hands

Group B appears to be delicately poised. Russia is in a scrap with Finland to finish second, however, if Finland were to stun Belgium, and Russia beat Denmark, then Belgium, Russia, and Finland would all finish on three points. However, goal difference would come into play. Russia struggled against Belgium, but a 1-0 win over Finland, kept their hopes alive, and their fate is in their own hands going into the Denmark clash.

On the other hand, Denmark’s minds have arguably been elsewhere after Christian Eriksen collapsed against Finland. While Denmark produced a spirited display against Belgium, they came up short. Nevertheless, the Danes are priced a short 7/10 to collect three points against Russia.

Name Winner Top 2
Belgium 3/4 1/9
Denmark 47/20 1/3
Russia 21/4 17/10
Finland 33/1 19/2

Ukraine v Austria Betting tips — Andriy Shevchenko has the last 16 spots in the grasp

For Ukraine, they are in touching distance of a last 16 spot. A 2-1 victory in their last Group C game against North Macedonia ended a run of six successive European Championship defeats, and in Andriy Yarmolenko, they have a player who can make things happen, and grab a game by the scruff of the neck. A victory over Austria will rubber stamp the second spot in Group C, and they are priced 13/5 to do so.

For Austria, they looked ordinary against the Netherlands, as they were outclassed from the first whistle. Austria will have to buck up their ideas if they are going to overcome a resurgent Ukraine.

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Euro 2020 Match Betting: England v Scotland preview and more

The first round of group games has thrown up some surprise results, and given us an indicator for what we can expect in the days to come. We will now turn our attention to Match day 2, and assess three group clashes — England v Scotland, Croatia v Czech Republic, and Sweden v Slovakia. Within that, we will take a cursory glance at the match odds for these matches.

England v Scotland Betting tips — Buoyant England ready to replicate Euro 96 memories

Having never previously won an opening group game at the Euros, England put that unenviable record to bed with a mature display, as they beat an insipid Croatia 1-0 last Sunday. Raheem Sterling swept home the only goal of the game after latching onto a perfectly weighted pass by Kalvin Phillips.

Sterling has now netted 13 times in his past 17 appearances for England, but the result was an early confidence booster for Gareth Southgate and his charges. Next up is Scotland on Friday at Wembley, and this showdown will invoke memories of Euro 96. At that tournament, England dismantled the Auld Enemy. Paul Gascoigne left Colin Hendry on his back before firing home a sumptuous volley to seal a 2-0 victory.

England has the weight of expectation on its shoulders, but if football is really going to be coming home as many fans would seem to think, they need to be a bit more inventive upfront. Currently, England are 33/100 to beat Scotland.

For Scotland, their return to the Euros was punctured by a 2-0 defeat in their opening Group D game against the Czech Republic. Patrik Schick scored a double, including a spectacular goal from the halfway line. Steve Clarke’s men tried to rally late on, but Kieran Tierney’s injury during the warm-up before the game was a huge blow. They now go to Wembley with a heightened need to pick up a result, but they will have to have a game plan to stop Phil Foden.

Name Winner Top 2
England 21/50 1/14
Croatia 19/5 4/6
Czech Republic 21/2 2/1
Scotland 16/1 3/1

Sweden v Slovakia Betting Tips — Swedes can’t be underestimated after Spain draw

Sweden are a plucky brunch, and they dug deep to pick up an unlikely point in a goalless draw against Spain earlier this week. Spain created plenty of opportunities. But Alvaro Morata was guilty of passing them up, and many of his efforts lacked conviction. At the other end, Sweden lacked cutting edge, although Alexander Isak was very direct. The Spain draw will have given Sweden a lift, and they are 4/5 to beat Slovakia on Matchday 2.

Slovakia, on the other hand, are coming off the back of a 2-1 victory over Poland in their opening Group E game. Milan Skriniar plundered home a volley to get his side off to a winning start, and perhaps like Sweden, may have been slightly underestimated. Sweden v Slovakia could be a very open affair, and this is judged by the fact you can get odds of 7/5 for there to be Over 2.5 goals during the 90 minutes.

Croatia v Czech Republic Betting Tips — Luka Modric will look to get back to his scheming ways

Against England, Croatia were rather subdued, and they failed to settle in the game. Real Madrid midfielder Luka Modric was one such player that was underwhelming. However, against the Czech Republic, he will look to get on the ball more often and dictate things in the middle of the park. England was a bad day at the office for Zlatko Dalic’s charges, but they are 23/20 to bounce back against the Czech Republic.

Meanwhile, the Czech Republic will have the wind in their sails after their victory over Scotland. If they can replicate that performance, they could make progress from Group D at the expense of Croatia. Schick has now been involved in 10 goals in his last nine international appearances, and he will be a threat aerially.

18+ | Play responsibly | Odds subject to change | Casumo Services Ltd is licensed by the MGA | MGA/CRP/217/2012 | rgf.org.mt

More top action this week as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2021 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 15th-Sat 19th June) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar and we’ve got it all covered! 

The action continues on Wednesday 16th June with a top card that in spearheaded by the Group One Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. 

Did You Know? 18 of the last 19 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old, while 13 of the last 19 successful horses in the race were previous Group One winners.

Like all big race days, here at CASUMO we’re in your corner with key trends and stats, plus our free tips – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best profiles of past winners.

Let’s get cracking! 

 

2.30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) 5f ITV

 

Queen Mary Stakes Trends

18/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
18/19 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
16/19 – Had won over 5f (or shorter) before
16/19 – Won their previous race
15/19 – Won by a horse foaled between Jan-Mar
13/19 – Placed favourites
7/19 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
7/19 – Returned a double-figure price
4/19 – Trained by Wesley Ward (including 3 of last 6 runnings)
3/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 of the last 5)
2/19 – Won by trainer Richard Hannon

CASUMO VERDICT: Another 2 year-old race to get us going for day two. Therefore, the betting will be a good guide with these youngsters all lightly-raced. With Frankie Dettori booked to ride the US runner – Artos – then this filly will be popular. She was a nose winner at Churchill Downs last time out over 5 ½ furlongs, while the first-time visor is also interesting here. Another popular one is sure to be the Aidan O’Brien-trained Yet, who got up on the line to win on debut at Dundalk last month and she sports the first-time tongue-tie here. We’ve a few other Irish runners too in Harmony Rose and Orinoco River, but the form pick for me is the Listed winner – NYMPHADORA – who won well at York last month. She had Crazyland back in third that day and Mas Poder in fourth, but at the line had 1 ¼ lengths in-hand and you felt it might have been more. Beautiful Sunshine is one of the more experienced in the field with three runs (2 wins) and can go well too, but her last two wins have been with cut in the ground, so that might be a worry if there is no rain. The other two of interest though are the Clive Cox-trained GET AHEAD (e/w) and the already mentioned MAS PODER (e/w). The former hails from a yard that won this in 2017 and have a 19% record with their 2 year-olds at the track. She was a nice winner over this course and distance last month so that track experience is a plus and has been freshened up with almost 6 weeks off since. Then, Mas Poder, caught the eye when running green but a decent fourth on debut behind Nymphadora at York and with the expected improvement looks another to have onside from the Kevin Ryan yard. 

 

KEY CASUMO TREND: Frankie Dettori has ridden 3 of the last 5 winners. 

 

3.05 – Queen´s Vase (Listed) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 2m ITV

 

Queen´s Vase Key Trends

16/18 – Had never raced at Ascot before
12/18 – Had at least 2 previous career wins
12/18 – Placed last time out
11/18 – Had run over at least 1m4f before
9/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
6/18 – Ran at either Lingfield or Haydock last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
5/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 4 times in all)
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
No winner from stall 1 in the last 15 years
The horse from stall 7 has been placed in 6 of the last 14 runnings (4 wins)
14 of the last 15 winners came from a single-figure stall
6 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 7 or 8

CASUMO VERDICT: A race dominated by the Irish, with six of the 15 runners. Of those six, Aidan O’Brien, who has won the 5 of the last 8 runnings, has three – WORDSWORTH, ARTURO TOSCANINI and KYPRIOS. Jockey Ryan Moore has opted to ride their Wordsworth, so this 3 year-old is likely to be the most popular in the betting. That said, he hung a bit last time out and just got run out of things in the closing stages at Navan over. Moore would have had the pick, but he doesn’t always get it right – just look at the Epsom Oaks earlier this season! Therefore, I think another O’Brien runner – ARTURO TOSCANINI (e/w) – might be worth chancing. This 3 year-old stayed on well over 1m2f last time at the Curragh wo suggest this step up in trip will be a plus and Wayne Lordan, who was on that day, remains in the saddle. He’s also officially rated a pound higher than Wordsworth. Of the rest, Taipan, Ruling, Kemari, and course winner Stowell enter the mix, but the Mark Johnston stable are another that have a good record in this race – they run Dancing King, who has won his last four, and GOLDEN FLAME (e/w). Both look improving stayers, but the last-named got better the further they went last time out over this 1m6f trip and we know he will stay the distance very well. He beat Pied Piper by an easy 4 lengths that day and Derby-winning jockey, Adam Kirby, has been booked to ride. 

KEY CASUMO TREND: Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won 7 of the last 18 runnings. 

 

3.40 – The Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Windsor Forest) (Group 2) 1m ITV

 

Duke of Cambridge Trends

16/17 – Had won over a mile (or further) before
15/17 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
15/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Won by a 4 year-old
14/17 – Had won a Group 3 or better race before
11/17 – Had run at Ascot before
10/17 – Favourites that were placed
7/17 – Had won at Ascot before
5/17 – Returned a double-figure price
5/17 – Winning favourites (1 co)
4/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/17 – Ran at Epsom last time out
4/17 – Owned by Cheveley Park Stud
3/17 – Trained by John Gosden
2/17 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
Only four placed horses (2 winners) from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings 

CASUMO VERDICT: Some nice milers on show here, but the form picks are LADY BOWTHORPE and Queen Power. The pair are rated 117 and 113, so the selection has 4lbs in-hand on these terms and that should be enough. This William Jarvis runner actually beat Queen Power by a head at Newmarket in May over 1m1f and has since run the useful Palace Pier to 1 ½ lengths in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury – that’s the best form on offer and a repeat of that would make her hard to beat. Queen Power will give her a race though and comes here having won the G2 Middleton Stakes easily over 1m2f at York last time. But I’m just not sure the drop back to a mile will suit. Her best recent runs have been over 1m2f and even though she’ll be staying on well at the depth, she’ll need the pace to stay in the race during the first half of it. Of the rest, Champers Elysees, Double Or Bubble and ONASSIS (e/w) are respected with the last-named worth a dabble. This Charlie Fellowes runner landed the Sandringham Stakes at the Royal Meeting last season and is the only CD winner in the field. She’s done well since when upped in grade and rounded off last season with a fine 6th (of 16) in the G1 Champions Sprint Stakes over 6f. She acts on ay ground and won at this meeting off a long break last season, so the 242-day break isn’t a worry. 

KEY CASUMO TREND: 14 of the last 17 winners were aged 4 years-old. 

 

4.20 – Prince of Wales´s Stakes (Group 1) 1m2f ITV


Prince of Wales´s Stakes Trends

19/19 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
18/19 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
18/19 – Won by a 4 or 5 year-old
16/19 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
16/19 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/19 – Were previous Group 1 winners
12/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Won their last race
11/19 – Had run at Ascot before
9/19 – Won by a non-UK based trainer
6/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/19 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3 of the last 13 runnings have gone to a French-trained horse

CASUMO VERDICT: Looks a three-horse battle here with last year’s winner – Lord North – and the two Aidan O’Brien runners – Love and Armory – the trio in question. Ryan Moore rode Armory to win the G2 Huxley Stakes at Chester easily last month, but the fact he’s deserted him for Love is interesting. This classy filly landed the 1,000 Guineas, Epsom and Yorkshire Oaks last season and gets a handy 3lbs from Lord North. She’s not been out since last August and this is actually her first try over this 1m2f trip too. We know she stays further so we can expect connections to make us of that but the trip and the fact this is her first run at the track, plus racing against the boys here are all small negatives that make me lean towards LORD NORTH. Last year’s winner bolted up in this race by 3 ¾ lengths and showed he’s better than ever back in March when landing the G1 Dubai Turf at their World Cup meeting. Frankie is the icing on the cake and the Gosden camp have been saying all week this is one of their best chances at the meeting. Of the outsiders, Audarya can go well, while course winners – Sangarius and Desert Encounter – at least have proven form at the track.

 

KEY CASUMO TREND: The John Gosden-trained Lord North won this race in 2020.

 

5.00 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) 1m ITV

 

Royal Hunt Cup Trends

17/19 – Had won over at least a mile before
16/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/19 – Unplaced favourites
14/19 – Returned a double-figure price
14/19 – Carried 9-1 or less
12/19 – Had run at Ascot before
11/19 – Won by a 4 year-old (inc 9 of the last 12 runnings)
10/19 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs that season
5/19 – Won their last race
2/19 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/19 – Won by trainer John Gosden
1/19 – Winning favourites
Overall, high number stalls have dominated in recent years
13 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure stall
We’ve seen 3 winners from stall 33 in the last 12 runnings

CASUMO VERDICT: The Royal Hunt Cup is always a competitive affair and this year is no different with 30 runners. 4 and 5 year-old have the best record – winning 16 of the last 19, so the older horses – Escobar, Trais Fluors, Bowerman, Bugle Major, What’s Up Story, Cliffs Of Capri, Teston and Hortzadar are overlooked. 13 of the last 15 winners also came from a double-figure draw – if this is to be repeated then those drawn low would have this as a negative – Path Of Thunder, Beat Le Bon, Pepperoni Pete, Real World, Fantasy Believer, Irish Admiral, Bell Rock, Eastern World and the well-fancied Finest Sound are those drawn low. Going back to the age trend, it’s the 4 year-olds that have the best recent record too – winning 9 of the last 12 – so the three I like are ASTRO KING, BRUNCH and MAGICAL MORNING. Astro King was only a shorthead behind Finest Sound at Nottingham in April and wasn’t disgraced with a running on third at Thirsk last time. The stiffer track here will help and Ryan Moore takes over in the saddle on this Sir Michael Stoute runner. Brunch has run well this season with a second in the Lincoln and then a neck runner-up at York last time out. He’s up 3lbs more here but wasn’t the best away last time, but probably would have won with a better start. Finally, Magical Morning comes from the John Gosden yard, that won this in 2015. He was last seen running second to Matthew Flinders at Doncaster last year but has been gelded since and could have more to come. He’s been freshened up with 9 months off, but won first time out last season and with another winter on his back will be a much stronger horse.  

KEY CASUMO TREND: 13 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure draw. 

 

5.35 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f ITV


Windsor Castle Trends

19/19 – Had at least 1 previous outing
18/19 – Won by a foal born April or earlier
17/19 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs
14/19 – Had won over 5f before
14/19 – Placed last time out
14/19 – Had never run at Ascot before
10/19 – Returned a double-figure price (inc a 100/1 winner)
10/19 – Unplaced favourites
9/19 – Won their previous race
9/19 – Won by a Feb foal
4/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Wesley Ward
2/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 6)
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
10 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall

CASUMO VERDICT: If Artos goes well in the Queen Mary Stakes (today’s first race) then the chances of RUTHIN will be enhanced massively with Ruthin smashing that one by 6 lengths on debut at Keenland. This is a race the Wesley Ward US yard have won in the past too and Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride. She led from the front on debut and being a filly also gets a handy 5lbs allowance here. Draw 12 also looks ideal and will give her options to go either side of the track, while 10 of the last 13 winners hailed from a double-figure stall anyway. The Ward camp also run Golden Ball, who was another easy winner on debut at Keenland and the fact they are sending her over means she’s respected too. Horses from stall one have struggled, so CD winner Chipotle has this trend to overcome. The Queen won this race 12 months ago too – she tires to follow up with the Michael Bell-trained Spring Is Sprung. Armour, if overcoming the low draw, Dig Two and the Aidan O’Brien-trained Amalfi Coast are all ones to note too, but the other pick is TIPPERARY SUNSET (e/w). He’s now 2-from-2 after wins at Hamilton and Beverley. Draw 18 looks ideal and hails from the shrewd John Quinn yard that are 1-from-4 with their juveniles here at Ascot in recent years. 

 

KEY CASUMO TREND: US trainer Wesley Ward has won 2 of the last 12 runnings. 

 

6.10 – Kensington Palace Stakes (Handicap) (4yo+) fillies and mares 1m ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 16% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker is just 1-from-34 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ralph Beckett is just 2-from-33 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 1-from-31 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Frankie Dettori has a 25% record when riding 4+ year-olds at the track 

CASUMO VERDICT: A new race here so only trainer and jockey track stats to go on really. The Sir Michael Stoute yard have a 16% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track so their Ryan Moore-ridden Lights On has to be one for the shortlist. She beat Dreamloper by just a shorthead here last time out and on just 1 pound worse terms shouldn’t be a lot between them again. But I’ll take a chance on the Gosden runner – MOSTLY (e/w) – bouncing back to form. She wasn’t suited by the undulating track last time at Nottingham and lost her action as a result, plus that also came over 1m2f – I feel the drop back to 1m here will suit better having won at Kempton over this trip in March. A 50 day break to freshen up and draw 14 look ideal too. With only average track stats with their 4+ year-olds at the course the Beckett-trained Declared Interest, the Channon runner – Dalanijujo – are overlooked. Several others have cases, including Lola Showgirl, Caspian Queen and Stunning Beauty, but it’s the Joseph O’Brien entry – SO I TOLD YOU (e/w) – that is worth having onside too. This 4 year-old bolted up at Sligo last time out and despite being up 13lbs for that looks a fast-improving sort. The drop back in trip should be fine, but we also know she stays further than this mile and you can expect connections to make full use of that.  Regular jockey, Dylan Browne McMonagle makes the trip over and can also claim a handy 3lbs here. 

KEY CASUMO TREND: Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 16% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track.

 

All times BST

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