Betting on the EURO 2024 Final: A Guide to Odds, Form, and More

We have nearly reached the end of the road. On July 14th, football fans across Europe will sit down to watch the EURO 2024 Final in Berlin as the new European champions are crowned. The holders, Italy, are already out—it’s now between Spain and England to decide who will wear the crown.

You can bet on the EURO 2024 Final right here on Casumo, and in the following guide, we’ll share some tips and stats to help you prepare for Sunday's big game.

Final Match Odds

Spain's exploits on the pitch made them the favourites to win the tournament even before their Semi-Final against France. They were the in-form team, so they shifted ahead of both France and England, 2 teams that were priced shorter than them before the tournament began. Nothing has changed since then—they are the favourites to beat England and become champions of Europe.

However, there isn't much between these two teams. Neither are odds-on for a win over 90 minutes, and you can get a good price on either team winning the tie.

Spain vs England Head-to-Head

If you’re betting on England in EURO 2024, you may be buoyed by their head-to-head statistics against Spain. On the surface, it makes good reading for England fans, but if you dig a little deeper, the optimism may fade.

England have beaten Spain 14 times and lost just 10 times, with 3 draws. But half of those wins came during a spell between 1960 and 1980 when the Three Lions won 7 out of 7, including 3 games at the EUROs. England also beat Spain at Euro 1996 and then again in a friendly 5 years later, but since then, they have won just 2 of the last 8 meetings.

There is a caveat to all of this, though. The last meeting was 6 years ago when both teams looked decidedly different. Many of the household names making headlines in Spain and England weren’t even on the senior team’s radar back then. In truth, while the individual players will know each other from their exploits in European club football, many haven’t faced each other on the international stage.

Stats from Previous EURO Finals

If you’re betting on the EURO final, remember that the markets are not just limited to win markets. It’s not all about which team lifts the trophy at the end. There are many EURO 2024 final betting markets available on Casumo, including Correct Score, Handicaps, Winning Margin, and Both Teams to Score.

Looking back at tournament form can give you some indication of how such wagers will transpire, but this is the Final of a major tournament. There’s a lot on the line, and that can impact a team’s approach. So, let’s look back at the last 10 EURO Finals and see how they would have fared in each betting market. 

Remember, this is just a guide, and just because something happened previously or happens regularly doesn’t mean it will happen in the EURO 2024 Final.

Total Goals

Only 3 of the last 10 EURO Finals have ended with a single goal scored, and in 1 of those (Portugal vs France, 2016), the goal came in extra-time. That was the only Final in the history of the competition that has ended 0-0 in normal time. Most of the last 10 games have ended with 2 goals scored, and only 1 (Spain vs Italy, 2012) has seen 4 or more goals.

Handicaps and Winning Margins

Including extra-time, 4 of the last 10 games have ended with a 2 goal winning margin, with 5 being won by a single goal and the other game going to penalties. There are usually goals in this game, but with the exception of Spain in 2012, it’s rare for a team to run away with it.

Both Teams to Score

A total of 7 of the 10 beaten finalists failed to register a single goal. However, you have to balance this with the fact that England have only failed to score in 1 of their games thus far, while Spain have scored in all of them.

Yellow and Red Cards

If you were hoping for red cards while betting on the EURO knockout rounds, you may have been pleasantly surprised. We saw 1 red card in the opening group game, only for the refs to keep them firmly in their pockets throughout the proceeding games. That changed during the knockout stages, and we’ve now seen a total of 6 (although a few were shown after the final whistle and even to benched players).

But while red cards can be common in the melee of the knockout rounds, they are much less common in the Final. We’ve only seen 1 red in the last 10 games, and that came all the way back in 1984. 

Yellow cards are much more common, though, and with the exception of 2012, every game has seen at least 4, with the highest coming in 2012 when Portugal were shown 6 and France 4.

Extra Time and Penalties

We’ve seen some lofty penalty shootout predictions at EURO 2024, as well as some great shootouts, including Portugal’s’ rapid dismantling of Slovenia and England’s impeccable finishing against Switzerland. Historically, though, they are not very common.

Italy’s shootout win over England in EURO 2020 was only the second time in the tournament’s history that the Final has gone to penalties, with the first coming back in 1976 when the Panenka penalty was born. Extra-time is more common, with 4 of the last 10 going beyond the allotted 90 minutes.

Spain Betting Guide

Spain are the highest-scoring team in the competition so far, with 13 goals to England’s 7. They have been free-flowing throughout and have looked like one of the tournament’s best teams since their dismantling of Croatia in the opening game of the “Group of Death”. 

They have a blend of youth and experience. More importantly, they have one of the most exciting attacks in the competition and have been able to find goals from all over, whether it’s their seasoned striker Morata or their young wingers.

You could point to their game against Albania as a potential weakness, as they weren’t as comfortable and only won 1-0, but their job was done by that point, and they fielded a weakened team. In truth, there have been very few moments when Spain didn’t look like potential champions, and when those blips did occur, they found their feet and got the victory, which is what champions do.

See all Spain betting markets.

EURO 2024 Semi-Finals Betting and Results for Spain

Approaching the Semi-Final between Spain and France, La Roja were the tournament favourites. It was the first time they had been given that label, taking over from England after the Quarter-Finals and France before that.

It’s rare for the top 2 tournament favourites to lose their positions in the outright betting markets while remaining in the competition. But it’s a testament to just how good Spain had been to that point.

Take beaten Semi-Finalists France as an example. Their opening goal against Spain in the Semi-Finals was the first goal they scored in open play during the entire tournament. And as they were eventually beaten 2-1—with an equaliser that could become the goal of the tournament and a winner from surprise star Dani Olmo—that will go down as the only open-play French goal in EURO 2024.

So, what does this teach us about the Spanish going into the EURO 2024 Final?

Well, it’s worth noting that while the French attack was poor, it was arguably better in this game than it has been in any other. Les Bleus got their superstar back when he became the first superhero to gain his powers after removing his mask. They cut open the Spanish defence several times, and in the first 20 minutes or so, it looked like Spanish hopes would crumble under the weight of an explosive attack.

But they kept it together, held off waves of French attacks, and eventually responded. And don’t forget, while France haven’t exactly been prolific upfront, they have been excellent in defence. Prior to the Semi-Final, they conceded just 1 goal, and that came from a spot-kick against Poland.

So, one way of looking at the game is that Spain beat a lack-lustre French team that was far from its best. Another way of seeing it is that Spain held out against a resurgent French attack, fending off the best player in the world and then grabbing 2 goals against one of the best defences in the competition.

Spain Strengths and Weaknesses

If you’re betting on Spain in EURO 2024, you were probably swayed by a handful of standout players who have been in the public eye over the last year or so. Spain certainly have some exceptional talent in their squad, but most of them are very young and inexperienced, and they lack the depth found in great Spanish teams of the past.

Take the 2010 squad as an example. This team of World Cup winners was packed with legendary talents, so much so that Fabregas and Torres were resigned to substitute appearances. They had Busquets, Alonso, Xavi, and Iniesta in midfield, one of the greatest midfield quartets of all time. David Villa and Pedro played ahead of them, while Puyol, Pique, Ramos, and Capedevilla played behind, with Casillas in goal.

The current squad has many surprise call-ups that would have gotten nowhere near that 2010 squad, including several players that most will remember from their failed or disappointing stint in the Premier League (including Joselu, who played nearly 60 times for Newcastle and Stoke and scored just 10 goals).

On paper, the Spanish squad can’t match those of England and France, but in practice, they have outperformed both of those teams. They arguably have the best cohesion of all the teams at EURO 2024 and work incredibly well together. Their forward line is one of their strong points. Again, it’s a young line, but there are some wonderfully gifted players in there who have terrified defences throughout the tournament.

They might come unstuck in the Final, and it looked like they would do just that for a brief time against France, but they have made it this far and clearly have what it takes to clear the final hurdle.

Spain EURO 2024 Odds

Spain are the deserved favourites going into this game. They might not be odds-on to beat England in 90 minutes, but they are odds-on to lift the trophy. They have been excellent thus far, and they had a very tough route to the Final after getting a 100% record in the Group of Death and then overcoming hosts Germany and pre-tournament favourites France.

For many pundits, this game is hard to call, as it’s difficult to predict what will happen on the night and what version of England will show up, but if Spain maintain momentum, it’s going to be a night to forget for England.

England Betting Guide

England have been heavily criticised to this point. The English faithful are used to being frustrated with their team, and while you could be forgiven for thinking that criticism was unjust for a team that made it to the Semi-Final, it was perfectly understandable.

In our EURO 2024 Round of 16 betting guide, we highlighted their lack-lustre showing in the Group Stage, including draws against Denmark and Slovenia. We said they needed to pick things up during the knockout stages. In the very next round, they struggled to create chances against Slovakia, and if not for a last-second equaliser and an extra-time winner, they would have been sent home. At that point, it would have been hard to argue that they didn’t deserve an early exit.

In our EURO 2024 Quarter-Finals betting guide, we discussed those failings again and said they needed to do better against Switzerland. They did, in a way, but they made hard work of it and were forced to rely on a penalty shootout (although they were exceptional in the shootout and scored all of their spot kicks).

Going into the Semi-Finals, the whole of England were equal parts excited and anxious, but that’s when we finally saw a change.

EURO 2024 Semi-Finals Betting and Results for England

England got off to a shaky start against the Netherlands when a Rice slip led to a quick breakthrough and an excellent goal from outside the area. They found their feet very quickly, though, and they played their best half hour of the entire tournament.

They frequently broke clear down the wing and found space behind the Dutch backline. They equalised via a controversial penalty that will no doubt make the headlines of English back pages for several days and could still be discussed in the Netherlands for weeks to come. But they took advantage of their slice of fortune and played some excellent football.

The game slowed down a little in the second half, but Gareth Southgate answered his critics by making some smart substitutions, and they combined to give England the winner. Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins found the back of the net from a tight angle to grab the winner and send them through.

It was a moment of brilliance that proves just how much depth this squad has and how effective they can be when they are properly utilised.

England Strengths and Weaknesses

England’s main criticisms thus far have been a slow transition in midfield and a tendency to sit back and defend when they have a lead. This was evident during the Semi-Final. They were fantastic in the first half, but the Dutch were better in possession for the second 45, and they found a way to silence and frustrate those young and creative England midfielders.

But Spain could be a different prospect. It’s the first time that England are facing a team that can match their big-name stars touch for touch. They will provide a very different challenge for England, one that could force them to come out of their shells and stay there, playing cut-throat football that sees them hit on the counter and exploit Spain’s forward-thinking approach rather than grabbing a goal and defending it.

England EURO 2024 Odds

One of the often-cited betting strategies for the knockout stages is to ignore what’s gone before and treat each game individually. Sure, form plays a big role and can tell you a lot about a team’s chances, but if you had relied entirely on form during EURO 2016, you probably wouldn’t have predicted Portugal’s success, considering they were a third-place finisher in the group stage and took their first 2 knockout games beyond 90 minutes.

England seem to be playing to this mantra, as well. They haven’t been at their best, but they have been doing enough to win, even though they have left it late on a couple of occasions. The oddsmakers have clearly factored this into the equation, and this, combined with the excellent quality of players in the squad, is why England’s EURO 2024 odds aren’t as high as their form would suggest.

Top Goalscorer and Other Markets

In addition to the Tournament Outright and Final match odds, there are still a couple of other major betting markets waiting to settle.

The Top Goalscorer market is one of the most prestigious, and with some big names dropping out of the running in the Semi-Finals, the 2 remaining favourites are Dani Olmo of Spain and Harry Kane of England, who currently have 3 goals each. The Player of the Tournament and Young Player of the Tournament awards will also be dished out at the end of the game, with Spanish players high in the running for both awards.

Summary: Betting on the EURO Final

Before the Semi-Finals, England were the competition favourites. The knockout stage odds seemingly favoured the Three Lions based on their consistent results—albeit not their performance—and the fact they had an easier route to the final, playing some of the tournament’s remaining outsiders in every game (including the Netherlands, who were the highest priced team of all the Semi-Finalists).

But then, the oddsmakers began to pay more attention to Spain. The Spaniards weren’t as heavily favoured as England before the start of the tournament, and they also sat behind the likes of France and Germany, but they have since shown the world just how great they are as a unit, and they will go into the EURO 2024 Final as the favourites.

That doesn’t mean a win is assured, though. We saw some big knockout stage odds for Italy against Switzerland and Austria vs Türkiye, and while we had previously highlighted these games for their upset potential in EURO 2024, even we couldn’t have predicted that both results would go against the favourites.

This is international football—anything can happen. So, don’t take those Final match odds as gospel. Make up your own mind. And get ready—if previous games are anything to go by, this should be explosive.

EURO 2024 Final Betting with Casumo

We’ve looked at historic results, checked the head-to-head, and studied the form. We’ve also considered the strengths and weaknesses of both teams and considered all of the possible betting markets for the big game. The only thing left to do is check those EURO 2024 Final betting markets and watch the game!

Throughout the tournament, Casumo has offered some of the best EURO knockout stage odds, and we’re keeping that going into the Final itself. We have also provided plenty of knockout betting tips and guides, and that won’t end with this article, as we have a review of the full competition on the way. So, stick with us for more great insights and fantastic promotions, and remember, whether you’re betting on the EUROs, playing football-themed slots like Football Cash Collect and Football Star Deluxe, or wagering on other sports, always gamble responsibly.

Index: The Euro 2024 Betting Guide

1. EURO 2024 Betting Guide
2. The Stages of EURO 2024 Explained
3. EURO 2024: Strategies and Tips
4. The Groups: Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D, Group E and Group F
5. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: Round of 16
6. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: Quarter-Finals
7. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: Semi-Finals
8. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: The Final